Gettin' Any ?

 SO FAR, SO GOOD

Madison Up

gallatin down

OFF TO A GOOD START

-------  

.. Well it looks like La Niña has kicked some snow toward our corner of the world. We've had the snow depth like days of yore. It's been dry snow and blows around for days after the event. We'll take it for now. Hope it continues.

.. The last few gentle winters have allowed Yellowstone National Park to replenish it's flora and fauna to "Postcard Splendor," Both the bison and wolf populations were at record numbers last fall, Since then about 20 of the wolves have been eliminated by hunters and 900 bison are slated to be culled (LINK  1, LINK 2.)

.. Catching along the open water edges of the legal estuaries has been exceptionally good. Snow machines are required to get to the good spots. Just about any bright sunken fly will deliver dance partners. All size  fish are on the bite.

-------  

WALLPAPER: AMERICAN STANDARD BREAKFAST

The Slow Drip

LOW SNOW HIGH WATER

RAPID DISCHARGE

temperatures spiking

WALLPAPER: THE MELT IS ON

-------  

., Very simply: snow pack down, discharge up. Looks like low water and easy fish finding coming to the neighborhood.

.. We're in the wet and rainy season. The snow that falls is just small flakes and a slight dusting. The charts and maps tell it all.

MORE THAN JUST A BIT LOW

.. The weather gods have blessed other areas more than our neighborhood. The recent warmup has also accelerated the low level melt and the rivers are running fast and warm.

.. The Firehole River is flirting with record discharge rates and has already spiked to near 60°F. The Madison River has hit over 50°F and the discharge is in record territory. 

.

.. This is not a terrible situation yet. This could rapidly become a terrible situation if the rains are warm and heavy. We'll keep you posted.

-------

WALLPAPER:  CHICKEN DONE RIGHT

Holding On

 WAITING FOR RAIN

Runoff Starting

tightrope act

--------  

.. As the thermometer hits 50°F we are anxiously watching the high country snow pack.  We're also keeping tabs on our neighborhood stream discharge.

.. The snow water content is pretty good for this time of year. The rivers are charging along at seasonal norms and, all is well with the world.

.. The neighborhood kids are in short pants and fishing neighbors are trudging through mud and muck to the best catching spots. The prime destinations include the reservoir estuaries of the Madison River and the South Fork of the Madison River.

THE FUZZY WORM

.. Adventurous sled heads pack their gear to Romsett Beach and Cherry Beach Campground on the west shore of Hebgen Reservoir. The little creeks  in this area keep the ice at bay and attract the finny dancers.

..  A couple of cell phone images are proof of the effort.  A pair of lunch-time fish showed that simple flotsam and small buggies are in the belly of the caught fish. Any fly that resembles a small twig or dead bug will entice a dance partner.

-----

.. We've just received our Covid Vaccine Allotment. Emergency and front-line workers are all vaccinated. Appointment lists are filling up and the process is quick and efficient. Reports include only one dizziness in a post-vaccination patient.

.. Perhaps the dark corners of the pubs will be available for tall tales, lies and secrets. We're ready and plumb tired of shouting at our neighbors.

-------  

WALLPAPER: ANOTHER OMELETTE WITH SOME SPUDS

It's Still Early

 HURTIN' SOME !

Lots To Make Up

we'll see "what if"

IS THIS O.K.  ??

-------  

.. The eternal optimists cry of "it's early," pales in the face of this year's strong La Niña weather pattern. We won't give up yet - BUT - it is looking a bit bleak for the neighborhood river basins.

.. Our head is wrapped around the fish of the neighborhood and that is our focus. Lots of snow means stirring up of the stream bottoms during spring runoff = that's good for the biota and the health of the streams. Lots of snow means good stream flows during the summer = cooler river temperatures and less stress for the fish. Lots of snow means that groundwater is up = better herbage and lower fire potential.

.. Montana has a slew of fair weather fans. They look forward to the snow melt. Most of our neighbors, however, enjoy a good snow year. Skiing is better. Snow sports of all kinds are better: hockey, sledding, biathlon, ice fishing, etc.

..  For just a little while yet we will play the optimist game. We will pretend that it's too early to worry about the snow water content of our snowpack.

.. Statewide we're not where we would like to be. In this chart the colors of YELLOW, GREEN, and BLUE are the best. 

.. RED and ORANGE are not so good. We will give it another four or five weeks before we whine. We won't cry until we are hurt.

.. Park attendance is down, park tours are down, skiers and ski races are down. The ukulele festival has been canceled.

..There are fewer foreign license plates in the Hebgen Tailwater region: catching is good and the redd count seems to be high for this time of year.

.. Even church attendance is down. There are restrictions on dark corners in the pubs and fewer giant fish are talked about.

.. Our near term forecast is for very little snow and occasional diurnal temperatures above freezing. As we said = it's early.

 

-------  

WALLPAPER: BLACK BEANS, BEAN AND CHEESE BURRITO, MEXICAN RICE

Gettin' Any ?

WE WATCH WEATHER

Fish Need Water

so do folks

DAILY SURFACE MAP

-------  

.. Way up here in our little corner of the 'Dakota Splinter,' (also known as 'Lost Dakota,') we enjoy watching the weather.
.. Some enjoy it more than others but, it's always a guaranteed topic of conversation.
.. The conversations usually include the topic of snow and rain and recently; "We need some."
.. We are, right here, still in a drought. Have been for about 9 years. It has to do with the weather shadow caused by the Continental Divide. In global terms it's insignificant.
.. The area around us, mostly, has left the drought behind us - lo these last 5 years - or so. But, it's still too dry.

----- 

.. Some fisher folks obsess about the weather and available surface water, (guilty.) Farmers do too. There's not much we can do about it but we watch!
.. The United States Department of Agriculture helps us with our watching by publishing a page of maps giving the current conditions. Our page is HERE. The maps are adjusted on a seasonal basis.
.. As soon as we can figure it out, (with the help of the kids,) we will post a link in our masthead. Then you can skip the drivel and go straight to the information.

----- 

.. We are getting a small snowfall. May get about 10" this week. We obsessive types know that it's not just what comes down but what also runs off. Right now it's still too warm for our tastes. The streams are still running high and the water is headed away from here. Were it not for the soil moisture content the trees would die.
.. We'll keep you informed.

-------  

.

WALLPAPER:    BREADED PACIFIC POLLOCK

Running Away

THE MADISON

High And Fast

look out st. louis

WALLPAPER:  DOWN THE DRAIN

-------  

.. The Madison River discharge is at about 111%. This is considerably higher and faster than normal for this time of year.
.. This is good for the level of water in Hebgen Reservoir - for now.  It makes the utility happy. It also means that Ennis won't flood in this winter - so far.

YELLOWSTONE WINTER GRUB

.. It also suggests that there may be too little water come Spring and Summer when the fish need it.
.. Our continuing mild start to winter and, the low snowfall sends the low level snow pack down the drain.
.. This is not a clarion call about disaster - not yet. How silly it may seem to the lowland population that we, (most of us,) are rooting for more snow and more cold weather. We will see what the future holds.
.. You can keep up to date with the interactive map of rivers in Montana and the rest of the United States HERE.

-------  

.

WALLPAPER:  BREADED ALASKAN POLLOCK

Tepid

A WEEK'S WORTH

What's Up ?

winter's slow start

WALLPAPER:  WET SPOTS

-------  

.. Even the sledheads are concerned. Yes Lilibeth, there is snow on the ground.
.. Yes Rodney, there is some powder up high, (along with avalanches: avalanche map here.)
.. For sure, Gastone, the alps are getting our snow and Big Sky is making their own.

-----

JUST LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS

.. We marvel at the variety of weather that winter has thrown at us so far this year. We've had a genuine deep freeze and a few days of heavy melting. Roof slides seem frequent so far and, even some spitting rain has dripped in the warm afternoons.

WINTER MIDGE

.. Now we're faced with some persistent warm numbers and wet snow for the coming week;  of course the neighbors are bemoaning the overcast and lack of midges below Hebgen Dam.
.. We are pleased to see the snow in the forecast. We need it. But, the wet snow combined with the warm weather, (into the 40's,) only means that most of the low and mid level deposits will accelerate their melt.
.. It's not too early to look at the snotel pages. Right now the snow water equivalency is not too good.
.. As part of a generalized northwestern dry spell we are in the -30% to -75% of the 1981 to 2010 normal,  ['SNO LINK HERE.]
.. As winter moves along it's merry way we'll keep you informed. Looks to be a roller coaster few months. Hopefully there is a net gain in snow water equivalent for the fish during the summer.

-----  

.. The neighbors are gearing up for the West Yellowstone ukulele celebration. it will be a week later this year. Mark your calendar for February 8-11 and come enjoy the revelry.
.. Some of our neighborhood guitar players have taken to the ukulele for messing around in the snow. No sense dragging a $4,000 wood box around in the snow when a $40 dollar plastic ukulele will do.

-------  

.

WALLPAPER:  "WE SHOULD"  BREAKFAST

Deep And Dry

OVER THREE FEET

Drifts to Six Feet

wind and avalanches

NPS PHOTO:    EVEN MAMMOTH

-------

.. Our little village is digging out from a couple of days of poorly anticipated heavy snow fall.
.. We've discovered why our local weather forecasters are so often wrong: "They have no windows in their offices."
.. The temperature forecast lows for the next few days are in the minus teens and twenties. Save the snow!
.. We are about 20% ahead of our recent historic snow depth years and about 10% over our recent historic snow water years. Quite a change from recent years. Perhaps it will continue. The forgiving Jet Stream is keeping the truly bitter cold just a bit North and East of us.
.. The west side of the divide is warmer and getting blizzards as the storms pile up around Driggs and most of Fremont County in Idaho.
.. It's way too early to get too optimistic but, if this continues it will be reminiscent of the good water years of the not so recent past and the great fishing that the churned up and renewed streams will provide.

SO FAR THIS WEEK

SNOTEL DAILIES

OUR WATER WEEK

OUR WATER YEAR

.. Come early March, 2017, we'll peek again and see what the Spring run off may bring. So far though, it's not looking too shabby.

-----

dayGLO rubber legs bugger

.. The neighbors have abandoned shoveling until our snow depth reaches five feet, (tomorrow or the next day.)
.. They have already produced what many an inebriated soul has pronounced as the winning fly for the Winter, (we'll wait for the sober evaluation.)
.. They call it the "dayGLO rubber legs bugger."

-------

WALLPAPER:  HAM 'n' EGGS WITH RED EYE GRAVY

Snow Packed

FISHERS SEEN REJOICING

Anticipation At Max Levels

and the hydrologic outlook ???

REMEMBER WHEN ?

-------

.. Given the sliding average system of measuring "normal" snow depth and snow water content, we are hearing enthusiastic conversations about the upcoming fair weather fishing and catching opportunities.
.. It's snowing right now. And, this is on top of the 18" of wet snow that we've gathered up in the last 36 hours. The high country has even greater accumulations for the last week or so.
.. However, an event looms on the near horizon that just may dampen the exuberance of the casual fisher and recent arrivals to our neighborhood. The National Weather Service has gifted us with an interesting alert.

.. CLICK HERE to read it while it's still available. A large part of Montana is included in this alert. Some parts of adjoining states are also included. These things are not released lightly. There is a wide area notified in the alert and folks ignore these things at their peril.

MONEY QUOTE

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOWMELT TO
INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RISING WATER LEVELS ANTICIPATED ON CREEKS...SMALL 
STREAMS AND RIVERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE PLAINS AND AT MID 
LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT 
 
...THEREBY PREVENTING ANY SLOWDOWN IN THE RATE OF SNOWMELT. 
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS 
SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING WATER LEVELS NEXT WEEK...AND BE PREPARED 
TO TAKE ACTION IF WATERWAYS EXCEED BANKFULL.

-------

WALLPAPER, (Loaf #12):   SOURDOUGH BOULE

Snowpack Holding

Click on image for large size.

Snowy Delights

ANOTHER FOOT OF FLUFF

Still Not Enough

.kmz files show it all

-------

.. Well, it's nice to see some more snow. And, it's nice to see even a little more in the forecast. BUT - we're still at just 77% of average .
.. The snow-water-content may be even lower, including this bit of fluff, when it gets measured.
.. We fished a bit at the Quake Lake Outlet over the weekend: stumbled through the boulder field, barked our shins, watched our blood freeze, and caught some monsters.
.. We did it almost like the worm fraternity. They are not above using a fly to catch some.
.. They've taken to adding a Hornberg to their worm rigs. We rigged ours without the garden hackle.
.. A slow sink-tip line with a 5-foot chunk of 10# Maxima and a #8 Hornberg allowed us to cast to the ice, pull the fly into the water and let it sink deliciously to waiting maws of a herd of finny denizens. Great fun.

-------

.. It's as if we could do something about it!
.. In the Spring we watch and worry and speculate about the snow pack and the runoff and the upcoming fire season.
.. Where's the snow? How much? How's it compare to previous years? Will the Spring rains bring it all down at once? What are the best mud flies?
.. It's a constant topic at the pub, the market, the post office, the hardware store, and church.
.. Well, informed neighbors are watching the NCRS sites with avid interest.
.. These sites have expanded their products with a series of .kmz files. These are Keyhole Markup Language files that allow the use of Google Earth to visualize the current conditions.
.. It's possible to overlay several .kmz files for added information. The files are produced by the NCRS in conjunction with the NWS: they are current, and graphically interesting. The data is precise too.
.. We pulled up a few for the Western United States and the Yellowstone Plateau.
.. The images below are screen shots of the images. Just click on any image to go to the appropriate page to get your own .kmz file.
.. Once you get the file downloaded, just click to open it and Google Earth will present you with the image, (Internet Explorer and Safari users need special instructions which are given on the download pages.)
.. The files are interactive and by clicking on the data points a range of information is presented in tabular form for your edification. Makes for great conversation while waiting for the butcher to trim your crown roast.

.. It's best if your computer is fairly competent and your Internet connection is rather quick. Some of the files include enormous amounts of embedded data and can take some time to load.

-------

.